Brad DeLong hits the nail on the head.

This piece by Brad DeLong is essential reading on the current economic situation.  Paragraphs 8-10 are the key ones.

I don't necessarily agree, however, that until the Fed and the Congressional centrists thrash out an understanding of whether we're in a liquidity trap or not, there's no point in a jobs summit.  Anything that keeps it in people's consciousness that something needs to be done about unemployment, is probably good.  Perhaps the administration and Congress will decide to do something more.  "More stimulus" talk seems to be in the air, despite widespread claims that it won't fly.  Sometimes things sneak back onto the agenda.

Wine and Cheese at Perimeter: 2007 Flat Rock Red Twisted, 07 Pilliteri Merlot, 08 Nautilus Sauvignon Blanc, etc..

One of the many great things about Perimeter Institute is the tradition of wine and cheese Fridays at 4 PM.  Dan Lynch, who manages PI's Black Hole Bistro, always lays in a good supply of some good-old-standby reds and whites, a small assortment of other interesting bottles, excellent cheese and hors d'oeuvres.  And there are  the friendly PI scientists, staff, and guests to talk to.  Yesterday I had a half-glass of 2007 Flat Rock  Cellars Red Twisted, an Ontario wine from the Niagara peninsula.  The only red grape the winery names on their website is Pinot Noir, and that's what this tasted like.  Although the website calls it a blend, perhaps that means a blend of barrels of Pinot that didn't make it into the higher-end Gravity Pinot and Reserve Pinot.  It was a nicely balanced, rather French-style, easy to like PN, not too light in body nor tart and green as young Pinot sometimes is, but rather fruity in a low-key, black-cherry and raspberry sort of way, kept in line by restrained use of oak, and with some hints of minerality characteristic of where it comes from.   Before springing $20.15 for it, Flat Rock's list price, I'd want to taste another glass or two... but next time I'm in the area I'll certainly stop by to do just that, and check out their other wines:  various higher-end Pinots, Chardonnays, and Riesling.  A 2008 (?) Nautilus Marlborough Sauvignon Blanc (from New Zealand) was also really nice---with the characteristic gooseberryishness and hints of grassiness of Marlborough SB, but in a restrained, balanced way that I really liked.  (Marlborough Sauvignons can be a bit over the top at times).  Crisp, but not ostentatiously so. Yum.  The good-old-standby on the red side was the Pilitteri 2007 Merlot.  I like this wine fine, it's moderately rich, but a bit rougher and less balanced than I'd prefer, and with some hints of foxiness to the black-cherry fruit.  I'd choose instead another of their wines that PI has in its cellar---the 2002 Reserve Merlot, which Dan chose to serve at a conference banquet I attended last month.  This was excellent stuff, a bit lighter bodied than the 07 regular bottling, but with a suave, even velvety mouthfeel despite a bit of tannin, classic blackberry flavors with a hint of minerality, and a nice bouquet mingling plum and cassis-ish notes with hints of tarriness, spiciness, oak and maybe a hint of coffee.  It's still availabe at Pilliteri for $30.  (I was there last weekend.)  Although it's not a tannin monster, I'd make sure it has time to air and develop over the course of a meal, in the glass or in a decanter, and if you have a cellar, I think it might continue to mellow and perhaps develop further over another 5 or more years.

Boot Camp for Dinner Ladies with the Naked Chef: A research study of Jamie Oliver's "Feed Me Better" school lunches program

Via Kyle Deas' Fitful Murmurs, a link to an article in the Financial Times reporting on a study of celebrity "naked chef" Jamie Oliver's "Feed Me Better" pilot program of serving fresh-cooked, nutritious lunches in British schools.  (The FT article reports that it involved a special "boot camp" training session for the dinner ladies.)  I think I first heard about this program, and perhaps the research study, from my wife.  There's a strong suggestion that it yields a few percentage points improvement in the number of students reaching particular levels in Science and English testing, and a more detailed examination of the regressions in the original article looks broadly consistent with that (even the "non-statistically significant" coefficients, including ones in Maths, were almost all in the right direction and mostly of about the same magnitude).  The study compared the two-academic-year periods of 2002-2004, to 2005-2007, in five school districts ("local educational areas", LEAs) in the southeast of London---Greenwich, in which Oliver's fresh-cooked meal program was implemented beginning in the 2004-2005 school year, with four others in which it wasn't.  The change in absenteeism in Greenwich, relative to the change in other districts, was estimated to be  -1.2 percentage points, with a standard deviation of estimate of 0.365%, significant at p<0.01.  This is a pretty significant drop--not a 1.2 percent drop in amount of absenteeism, but a change of 1.2 percentage points in the absenteeism rate---translating to about a 22.5% drop in the number of absentee students.   (In the text, the authors cite only the 0.8 percent drop in authorized absences, since the change in unauthorized ones wasn't significant on its own; but their data shows the total change as significant too, which is what I described.) Even more interestingly,  the estimated change, relative to non-treated schools, in the fractions of students reaching Levels 4 and 5 on the "Key Stage 2" standardized testing, broken down into English, Maths, and Science (for four coefficients) ranged from 2-6%, with standard deviations of these estimates around 2.5-3%, in a "school level data" regression analysis.  (This means other factors that might have affected results were included in the analysis by including variables for school characteristics in the regression.)  Only a couple of these six coefficients were significant (at the 0.10 level), but I think the overall pattern for the fractions of students attaining Level 4 and Level 5, with those coefficients that were not significant at 0.10 still large and in the right direction and roughly comparable to the standard deviation of estimate, adds persuasiveness to the results.  Level 3 fraction was also included, but the effects were negligible compared to the standard deviation of estimates.   (I haven't looked at the methodology carefully enough to determine whether Level 3 meant "exactly level 3" or "at least level 3... in the former case, the rough constancy at level 3 is perhaps good news as it would suggest students who scored at level 4 or higher rather than level 3, were at least roughly counterbalanced by ones who reached 3 rather than a lower level.)  Pupil-level regressions were also done, with the pupil's percentile score as dependent variable, and pupil-level data to help control for socioeconomic status and other confounding variables; it gave broadly similar results:  the relative effect on English results was large at 4.7 percent, and highly significant at p<0.01, while the Science doesn't look too bad either at 3.6 percent (apparently not significant even at 0.1 though) and even the maths is in the right direction.

I would have liked to see more explicit statements on the school and pupil-level characteristics included in the regressions, but I take the school-level characteristics to have been those summarized in Table 2.  Actually, if we interpret "controls include" to mean that this is the full list of controls, then the information is in the note at the bottom of Table 3.

I'm not a practicing statistician or econometrician, so I won't pretend to give a definitive assessment of the methodology here (I also haven't spent that long thinking about it), but it all looks pretty decent.  I'd love to hear comments here on the methodology from competent working statisticians or econometricians.

They did a control for the idea that the change in educational outcomes was due to the change in absenteeism, and concluded it wasn't, and a similar, but I think much more tenuous, attempt to somehow proxy for a "placebo effect", which they interpret as suggesting the placebo effect wasn't the thing.  I'm not so sure it matters, if it continues to work.

Nice stuff; let's hope for expanded programs and more studies of them.  Meanwhile I think it'll influence me to eat a little healthier myself.

Spanish and Catalan wines from the summer; "Blue Mojo" cheese.

It's hard to beat the value and quality you get by buying the wines of a European wine-producing country in that country...especially if the country is Spain, France, or Italy.  High quality wines from smaller producers who have no need to spend time marketing their wine for export---and splitting the profits with exporters---are available, and since wine is considered a basic foodstuff, usually taxed far less than if they are exported to the US.  And most wines are the better for not having taken a boat trip across the Atlantic, or even (if you are on the West coast of North America) through the Panama Canal.

This summer I was in Spain at the biennial Quantum Information workshop in Benasque, and had the chance to try some excellent wines, and excellent values for an American even with weak dollar.  Raimat's Viña 32 Cabernet Sauvignon 2005, DO Costers del Segre, from the inland Catalan area of Lleida (aka Lérida, in Castilian Spanish) was "excellent, with red fruits, mildly grainy tannins, fruity, slightly foxy."  It was in the 5-6 Euro range.  This was a solid value, but a better wine was Bodegas Pirineos Merlot-Cabernet 2003 Crianza--Somontano, €8.50 at El Veedor de Viandas in Benasque.  This is from the foothills of the Pirineos near Benasque, and was a very nicely balanced, medium-bodied, easy-to-drink but not too simple wine, with a "combination of red fruits and herbs of the Pyrenees (fantasy?)".  It lacked the "foxiness" mentioned in the Raimat, and the herbal notes leaned toward rosemary, savory, thyme, while otherwise the wine displayed typical cabernet and merlot tastes with a bit of backbone from tannin.

There are plenty of excellent cheeses to be had in Spain---just try out promising-looking ones, especially ones from local producers, in your local cheese store or supermarket cheese section and you'll likely do fine.  One of the several that we tried with these wines was a particular standout.  Quesos de Radiguero's Rio Vero Leche de Cabra, Moho Azul.   This is from Adahuesca in the region of Huesca, a valley or two over from Benasque but futher down, in the mid-altitude foothills of the Pyrenees.  "Moho azul" means "blue mold", not "blue mojo", but mold and mojo are exactly what this cheese has:  it's covered by a finely filamented, live-looking blue-black mold, glistening with drops of moisture.  Inside it's white to lightly straw-colored, parts smoothly creamy but parts with a slight texture like fine ricotta, balanced between runny and firm, with strong, clear, fermented or still-fermenting flavors, perhaps somewhat reminiscent of a creamy Saint Andre but more pungent, almost with hints of Roquefort.  Serious stuff, and seriously fun to scare the squeamish with.   The previous time I was in Benasque, four or so years ago, Robin Blume-Kohout told me that he considers himself a fan of strong, and blue, cheeses, but that the cheese I served at a party that summer was the first cheese he'd encountered that might possibly count as a little too strong, or too blue, for him.  Memory tells me that this cheese, which might have been Cabrales, was wrapped in leaves, something you only find in Spain anymore as it is apparently not legal for the commercial product anymore (EU regulations, no doubt).  Sergio Boixo had some other stuff to tell me about Cabrales production, but  I suspect he was pulling a prank on a credulous foreigner, so I won't repeat it here.

Today's talks at Perimeter Institute: Gravity waves, Measurement-based quantum computation

A few talks you might consider watching online:

Today (now yesterday, actually)'s colloquium.  Patrick Brady gives a nice accessible introduction to gravity waves and the current LIGO observation program, as well as what we may see when Advanced LIGO comes on line in a few years.  Some enlightening animations.  Recommended for: General Audiences. Mild equations.

Very cool ideas, very well presented, from Stephen Bartlett yesterday in the PIQuDos (Perimeter Institute Quantum Discussions series) on how the ability to do quantum computational gates---in this case, single qubit gates---in a measurement-based quantum computational model using the ground state of a lattice Hamiltonian as a resource---can in some cases be modeled by an order parameter, the expectation value of a "string" of operators on adjacent lattice sites that are related to the measurements you need to do to effect the gate.  Phases---regions of parameter space in the parametrized family of Hamiltonians---exist for which the order parameter indicates these gates work well for measurement-based QC purposes.  In particular, the qubit has to be "moved" through the lattice as a "circuit" is simulated, and in a "good" phase, the fidelity of the state of the moved qubit to the state before it's moved, is independent of how far it has to be moved.   An excellent talk.  Recommended for: quantum computation wonks, condensed matter physicists, and a general physics audience interested in getting an idea of the cutting edge of interaction between quantum information/computation and condensed matter physics.  If you're looking for interesting but possibly hard open problems, this talk certainly suggests some.

Bastianich 2008 Sauvignon Blanc

Had a glass of "2008 Bastianich Sauvignon Blanc" at Bayona in New Orleans. I'm assuming it's the one listed on the net as from the  DOC "Colli Orientali del Friuli" (at Bayona they listed it as from "Venezia", but since the Colli Orientali del Friuli are in the autonomous region of Friuli-Venezia Giulia, that's probably the one).  Fantastic! Hints of grassiness (in a good way), minerality, raciness. Balanced, not high-alcohol, with a long finish. This wine is the essence of Sauvignon Blanc---no histrionics, no in-your-face flavors of gooseberry or whatever, just delicious, sappy, wine you want more of, with or without food. Hats off to everyone involved with this, from vineyard managers to winemakers to distributors and retailers: we need more wine like this!

Here's Bastianich's blog.

Physics and Song: Perimeter to U2 Tour 360, Rogers Centre, Toronto 9/16/2009, courtesy of Blackberry and/or Mike Lazaridis

Courtesy of Mike Lazaridis (CEO and co-founder of Research in Motion, the company that makes the Blackberry, and founder of Perimeter Institute, where I work), and/or his company (THANKS!!) the staff at Perimeter Institute was bused to Toronto and treated to the first of two U2 shows in the Rogers Centre, downtown next to the CN tower.  The roof was open on the arena, and those on the west side could see changing, glowing colors lighting up the elevator strip all the way up the CN tower, and encircling the observation deck. In my account of the concert below, I'll link to mostly YouTube videos to that give a play-by-play record of most of the concert---be warned that some of these are pretty low quality, though a few are surprisingly good.

Overall, the concert rocked.  Although I haven't followed U2 closely, I have a couple of their CDs from quite a while back---the excellent Achtung Baby, and a double live one, plus a few LPs kicking around that I haven't listened to recently.  They haven't lost their touch.  I particularly enjoyed some of the songs from their new album: the opening sequence "Breathe",  "Magnificent", and "Get on Your Boots".  My notes call the latter "surrealistic hard rock, with fuzz bass and Nirvana-y guitar riffs".  Its title and tacky-but-tasty riffs (think snarfing a box of Snyder's of Hanover Honey Mustard & Onion Pretzels) remind me of Sonic Youth's "Dirty Boots".   I liked the live "Boots" a bit better than the studio video version you can hear here--- a little grittier and harder-rocking.

Their traveling stage set (apparently one of three---the setup takes long enough that they need to start in one venue before the shows are finished in the next) is a giant pale-green thing, adorned with orange buttons and a tower sticking out the top, that looks like a cross between a giant four-legged beetle and the a lunar lander, and forms a tall canopy over the circular stage.  Under the belly of this thing, there's a huge circular video screen made of elongate hexagonal chunks, which can be interpreted as the thrust nozzle of a rocket engine.  Half-way through the show, the thing elongates vertically to more than twice its size, revealing that the screens are mounted on diagonally criss-crossing metal rods hinged to each other as in a folding set of coat-pegs, or wash-hanging rack.  It's used to show closeups of the performers, and various other graphics integral to the show.

We unfortuately missed the opening act, Snow Patrol, as the bus ride from Waterloo to Toronto is a lengthy proposition when you leave at 4 PM on a weekday.  The show started out with the bug thing towering over the empty stage as Bowie's "Space Oddity" was played on the sound system.  Then some moody, pretty music as the lights went out, the band came on, and the spots came up on them one by one, segueing into the band playing "Breathe" off their new album  (Here's longer, but better, video of the whole initial sequence from the last part of Space Oddity, through the band entrance and "Breathe").   Initially the sound balance left something to be desired---the low bass and kickdrum frequencies that resonate in your chest, and below, were overemphasized for my taste, while the actual low and low-midrange frequencies where the bass melody lives were underemphasized.  And the non-kickdrum parts of the drumset, especially at lower frequencies, were a bit undermixed too (partially remedied by Bono's call for "more drums" early in the set).  But basically the sound was pretty good, especially for an open arena which is probably pretty hard to fill sonically.  Vocals and guitar lines were pretty clear.  The band was able to carry things through Breathe and "No Line on the Horizon" as the sound settled down, or I stopped noticing it, and by Get On Your Boots things were rocking just fine.  (Here's some good video footage, with crummy no-bass sound, of the CN tower ... not sure this is actually "No Line" as claimed by the tuber who posted it, though.)  Here's the beginning of Magnificent (another song I liked from the new album, here's another snippet of it, and here's probably a better video of the whole song, from near the stage.)  This was followed by Get on Your Boots---no acceptable video from Toronto, so here it is from the opening show of the tour, in Barcelona's Olympic Stadium.  "Beautiful Day" from 2000's "All That You Can't Leave Behind" ended with a little snippet from Elvis Costello's "Alison", though with an somewhat altered, and I thought less interesting, melody.  "I Still Haven't Found What I'm Looking For" from Achtung Baby, here beginning with the audience doing a good bit of the singing, was the first of the oldies but goodies for me, followed by a nice version of Elevation (also from "All..."), with the band really getting into a disjointed but rocking groove appropriate to the somewhat "surrealistic" lyrics ("why can't the sun // shoot me from a gun..").  "Your Blue Room" was a classic, lazing-across-inner-space "orbit" song, at a meandering tempo with looping "satellite" motifs and footage shot from the International Space Station, and a little sprechstimme from Commander Frank.  Nice touch (as was the LEM-like stage-set)  in the anniversary year of the moon landing.  (Here it is from Chicago a few days earlier, from farther out so you can see the video display.) [Unknown Caller]  Until the End of the World resumes the sequence from Achtung Baby (begun with "Still Haven't Found...")  An even better video of End. StayUnforgettable Fire (nice sound and video, but cut off after 2:50.  ).  This is when the rocket nozzle video screen got vertically elongated.  More good video of Unforgettable Fire; relatively decent sound for this kind of thing, but bass-challenged.  City of Blinding LightsVertigo / Pump It Up.  Bono announced that Elvis was in the house; this, and the bit of Alison and Oliver's Army, were presumably in his honor.  (Some parts of this sound like Dirty Boots as well.)  I'll Go Crazy if I Don't Go Crazy Tonight (sound issues), a lightweight but hard-rocking pogo-ey, poppy bit of infectious fluff off the new album.  Another version of Crazy with different sound issues and funny audience vocal.  Sunday Bloody Sunday (OK sound, long view; late beginning).  Ends with a snippet of Elvis Costello's "Oliver's Army".  MLK, for Aung San Suu Kyi.  Walk On, and One, for Aung San Suu Kyi (seriously bad audience vocals from near whoever recorded this, but with some redeeming value (humor)).  Amazing Grace.  Where the Streets Have no Name.

Ultraviolet (Light My Way), another oldie but goodie from Achtung Baby.  Bono doesn't slack off when covering old songs...the phrasing is different in different performances, his heart and mind is in it.  With or Without You.  Moment of Surrender.

The Fresh and the Salt, or the Raw and the Cooked?---Krugman on how economics got it wrong...and Jonathan Richman on getting it straight.

OK, another must-link, to Paul Krugman's extended New York Times version of something he's blogged on before: the divide between "freshwater" and "saltwater" economists, and how the profession largely failed to anticipate the present economic crisis, and to some extent---especially in the "freshwater" camp---lacks the intellectual tools to deal with it.

Anybody who is interested in understanding the current economic situation, and in getting some background for their attempt to understand it, should read Krugman's article.  (And even more importantly, read Keynes' "General Theory".

As a graduate student in economics round about 1985-87, for a semester at Yale and then for two and a half years at Berkeley (I moved to the Bay Area for love), I got (or rather continued, since I'd taken a bit of econ as an undergrad, and done quite a bit of reading on my own) a squarely "saltwater" (this refers to the coastal US---say, Berkeley, Harvard, MIT, Yale---as opposed to the heartland---say, Minnesota and Chicago, and I'm not sure how far the generalization holds beyond these schools...) economics education, taking first-semester macro, for example, from Jim Tobin.  Yet even then, and there, we were subjected to readings from the "rational expectations" and "real business cycles" school of macro:  Barro, Sargent, Lucas.  I must admit I found this stuff as obviously out of touch with reality then, as Krugman is now telling us it is.  Often  fitted out with impressively technical talk of autocorrelations and regressions, it made claims such as:  systematic use of monetary policy to smooth out business cycles can't have any effect, because rational economic agents will anticipate it; business cycles are due to such "real" factors as shifts---due to underlying changes in "technological possibilities", not due to failure of aggregate demand---in the relative rewards to leisure versus labor, resulting in more people choosing leisure (the "Great Depresssion as Great Vacation" theory, as Krugman skewers it).   The apparently supportive econometric analyses apparently worked---I don't actually recall the econometric critiques of the time, having been more concerned at the time to acquire tools that would help me understand how the economy actually did function, than to score intellectual points against the wrong-headed---by mistaking correlation for causation, and leaving out of the analysis variables of critical importance.  Sometime somebody should---heck, somebody probably has, and I'd love to be pointed towards the analysis---take their macroeconometric work apart.  (Here's a contribution in that direction from one L. H. Summers---pretty devastating, I'd say.)

Krugman's article adduces two, or perhaps three reasons---the "beauty" of rational-agent equilibrium theories, the lure of "sabbaticals at the Hoover Institution and job opportunities on Wall Street" why "freshwater" macro gained as much influence as it did.  Of these, he thinks the "beauty" aspect was the more important.  I think a lengthy exploration of the culture and politics of the economics profession would reveal a lot about how the intertwining of politics, business, and academic culture enabled the rise of the freshwater school.  I'd love to see such a work, by an economically literate social scientist (perhaps even an economist).  Because to my mind, the fact that the bundle of misguided ideas Krugman is referring to as "freshwater economics" gained as much influence as it did, is a serious counterexample to the idea that economics, as practiced in the academy and the more academically-linked think-tanks and policymaking institutions, is a science that makes a serious effort to test its theories against reality, and judges the work of its practitioners accordingly.

Having said that, I'll admit to being very irritated by people who claim that economic theory and academic economics in general have been shown up as useless by the present crisis.  For me, Keynesian theory was always at the heart of macroeconomics, certainly the macro that was taught me when I was in grad school (and that I sought out to teach myself even before then) and its value as a tool to help understand and deal with reality is only accentuated by this slump---as is the value of intelligent, reasoned, reality-based economic analysis more generally.

Anyway, I'd like to think that "freshwater" versus "saltwater" may be a bit of a calumny on the heartland.  Maybe instead of the fresh versus the salt we should (reversing the order) call them, whether or not it fits with Levi-Strauss, the Raw and the Cooked, according to whether they are willing to accept the raw facts of economic slumps, unemployed resources, burst asset bubbles, or can't believe these are what they appear to be and (unintentionally in most cases, perhaps) are moved to cook the data via sophisticated regressions to fit their "markets can't fail" theories. For them, or those seduced by them, maybe the words of Jonathan Richman and the Modern Lovers (if you want to listen, the track was switched with "Modern World [alternate take]" ) are apropos, put into the mouth of a hypothetical bubble-acknowledging, behavioral-economics-friendly, neo-parti-Keynesian, reality-based "raw" economist:

Now I've watched you walk around here.
I've watched you meet these
boyfriends, I know, and you tell me how they're deep.
Look but, if these guys, if they're really so great,
tell me, why can't they at least take this place
and take it straight? Why always stoned,
like hippie Johnny is?
I'm straight and I want to take his place.

A spear carrier's view of the 1994 health care reform debacle (DeLong)

I get annoyed by blogs that are mostly just links to other people's stuff... but I had to link this great post from Brad DeLong on his inside view of the 1994 debacle in health care...

I"ve been wondering for the last few weeks or months... why can't Obama be more like LBJ?  Still, everyone has to operate from their own strengths... he may yet pull off health care reform in his own style, and for those who care about the horse-race aspect of this (and I certainly do inasmuch as it affects the Democrats' chances in the next two elections): by now, anything decent (or even apparently decent) by way of a health care bill will be viewed as a victory for Obama.

I'm worried, though, that although there are apparently European models for well-functioning healthcare that don't involve a public option, they involve nongovernmental nonprofit entities, or high levels of regulation.   Such models may be very difficult to replicate in this country where they may be easily co-opted or weakened by the money and influence big insurance can put behind things, and by the continual possibility of politically motivated medldling/sabotage.  Ironically, I fear our politics and culture may make a public option more workable than a semiprivate one.